Whether you are planning a new game or trying to work out why the game you launched isn’t performing as expected, one of the first things you need to confirm is whether this was a failure of the game or where there simply isn’t enough market potential for the concept. Trying to work out what success looks like is essential not only for investors, but also for your own purposes, so that you can understand the risk vs potential reward of your project. To answer this question, you need to build a model.
First, I should qualify that the approach I’ll be talking about in this article is what is often referred to as a revenue forecast, however we don’t use that term because you cannot really forecast how your game will perform without real player data from your game itself. However, you can use external data to see what success could look like and build a model on that basis, and over time, replace the external data with your own data, to deliver an actual revenue forecast.
Second, our intent in this article is to help you consider how to approach building such a model; we aren’t trying to create a tutorial here, but instead provide a framework which you can use to develop your own models in seven steps.